Indian Election 2019: Exit Polls Predict Modi’s Victory

The result of exit polls indicates that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to retain his post. Twelve out of the thirteen exit polls predicted that National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will easily win the simple majority in parliament.

To form a government in India, the political party or the alliance of parties require a minimum of 272 seats in the 545-member Indian lower house of parliament.

The only exit poll that differed from the rest is the NewsX-Neta poll which predicted that NDA will be 30 seats short and a hung parliament. According to NewsX-Neta exit poll the NDA will win 242 while the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) lead by the main opposition party Indian National Congress (INC) will win 164 seats. Other smaller and regional parties are expected to win 137 seats combined.

All other exit polls show that Mr.Narendra Modi is going to be the next PM. The Axis-IndiaToday exit poll predicts a sweeping victory to Mr.Modi with his party BJP alone will win a simple majority while the NDA is likely to secure 339 to 365 seats. The India Today poll says the ruling collation NDA will better their vote share by 6% compared to 2014 general election.
As one would expect, the majority of these seats are from the “Hindi belt”. The NDA is also expected to make significant progress in the sates of West Bengal and Odisha.

Exit Poll 2019

Exit Poll: 2019 Indian Election (Sourece:Wikipedia)

While the Modi effect is expected to bring a clean seep for BJP in the North Indian states, south India is still out of reach for the NDA with the exception of Karnataka.

Indian Stock Market: Effect of Exit Poll 2019

The latest news of BJP, the ruling party going to hit the simple majority comfortably, is likely to bring positive sentiments to the market. A stable government is what long term investors are looking for. Analysts predicts that the Sensex equity benchmark may cross the 40000 mark the psychological level at sensex.
At Stock Watch, we don’t expect this to happen today, but more likely to hit the benchmark on May 23rd when the actual election results will be announced.


As expected, the stocks market India witnessed the strongest one-day gain in over 3 years. The BSE Sensex gained 1,422 point which is approximately 4% gain. Earlier reports shows that India’s economic growth is slowing down in 2019. Now it is expected to bounce back during the financial year 2020.

Today’s biggest gainers include Indiabulls Housing Finance, TVS Electronics, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, UltraTech Cement and Adani Ports.